Are NNN Cap Rates Rising? What Our Sold-Comp Data Actually Shows

Everyone has an opinion on where net lease cap rates are headed. We have data. We pulled every dated transaction in our database and compared the most recent period against a year ago to answer the question directly: are NNN cap rates rising, falling, or holding? Here’s what the numbers say — and what it means for your next move.

The Trend: A Modest, Steady Climb

Comparing our sold comps period over period:

Year over year, cap rates are up about 13 basis points. Our trailing 12-month sold comps average 6.63%, versus 6.49% for the prior 12 months. That’s a measured, modest increase — not a spike.

The most recent quarter confirms it. Our trailing three months of sold data (the start of 2026) average 6.71%, compared to 6.59% for the same three months a year earlier — a 12-basis-point increase that lines up almost exactly with the 12-month trend.

The takeaway: cap rates have drifted upward, but gently and consistently. This isn’t the sharp repricing of 2022–2023. It’s a market that has largely found its footing and is grinding slightly higher as the higher-for-longer interest rate environment persists.

Why Cap Rates Are Drifting Up (Not Spiking)

Rates are staying elevated. With the Fed holding and the 10-year Treasury above 4%, borrowing costs remain high. Cap rates and interest rates move together over time, so as long as financing stays expensive, there’s gentle upward pressure on cap rates.

But demand is absorbing the pressure. The reason cap rates are climbing by basis points rather than full points is that buyer demand — especially from 1031 exchange buyers and private capital seeking safety — remains deep. That demand cushions the impact of higher rates. Every motivated buyer competing for a quality asset keeps cap rates from rising faster.

The repricing already happened. The violent cap rate expansion came in 2022 and 2023. What we’re seeing now is a market that has absorbed that shock and is making small adjustments at the margin, driven more by individual deal credit and term than by macro swings.

What a 13-Basis-Point Move Actually Means

It’s tempting to dismiss 13 basis points as noise. It isn’t — it’s real value. On a property with $250,000 of rent, the difference between a 6.49% cap rate and a 6.63% cap rate is roughly $83,000 in value ($3.85M versus $3.77M). Across a portfolio, that adds up.

But the more important point is direction. Cap rates rising — even modestly — means property values are gently declining, all else equal. For a seller, that argues against waiting. For a buyer, it means slightly better entry yields than a year ago.

What This Means for You

If you’re a seller: The trend is not your friend if you’re waiting. Cap rates have risen 13 bps in the past year with no sign of reversing while rates stay high. Waiting for cap rates to compress back down is a bet against the current direction. If a sale is in your plans, the data favors acting sooner rather than later. Our 1031 exchange buyer pool remains active and can move quickly on quality assets.

If you’re a buyer: Entry yields are modestly better than a year ago, and the gentle upward drift means you’re not catching a falling knife. Focus on credit and term — the two factors that matter most within any given month — rather than trying to time the macro.

See current cap rate ranges by sector on our NNN Cap Rate tracker, updated monthly.

Are NNN cap rates going up in 2026?

Yes, modestly. Our sold-comp data shows NNN cap rates up about 13 basis points year over year — trailing 12-month average of 6.63% versus 6.49% the prior year. It’s a gradual climb, not a sharp move, driven by the higher-for-longer interest rate environment but cushioned by strong buyer demand.

Should I wait for NNN cap rates to drop before selling?

The current data argues against waiting. Cap rates have drifted up, not down, over the past year, which gently reduces property values. With rates expected to stay elevated, waiting for compression is a bet against the prevailing trend — and your lease term is shortening in the meantime.

The Bottom Line

The data is clear and reassuring in its consistency: NNN cap rates are up about 13 basis points year over year, a modest and steady climb rather than a spike. The market has absorbed its repricing and is now grinding gently higher as rates stay elevated. For sellers, the direction favors acting now. For buyers, it means stable, slightly improved entry points. Either way, knowing the real trend beats guessing.