It’s the question we hear most from net lease owners right now: with interest rates staying higher for longer, should I sell now or wait for a better market? It’s the right question to ask, and the honest answer is that for many owners, the case for selling now is stronger than the case for waiting. Here’s the framework we use to help owners think it through.
First, Understand the Market You're In
A few realities are shaping every NNN decision in 2026.
Rates aren’t dropping soon. The cost of capital on newly originated commercial real estate loans has jumped roughly 200 basis points over the debt being replaced — from the low 4% range to around 6%. The 10-year Treasury is expected to average above 4% through the year, with at most a single rate cut on the table. The “wait for cheap money” strategy has a long, uncertain runway.
But deal volume is rising anyway. Here’s the part that surprises people. Transaction activity climbed meaningfully through 2025 and accelerated into 2026, running well ahead of the prior year. Listings increased, bidding pools deepened, and larger deals became routine again. Lenders have largely stopped tightening and are competing for new business, with new loan origination at its strongest pace since 2022. Capital is available again for buyers who want to transact.
The engine is refinancing pressure. The reason deals are happening isn’t optimism — it’s math. Owners with maturing debt who can’t refinance at today’s rates are choosing to sell. A property financed at 3.5% may not carry the same debt load at 6.5%. When the math no longer works, assets trade. That dynamic is pushing a steady stream of motivated activity through the market.
The Case for Selling Now
For many owners, several factors line up in favor of a sale today:
Strong assets are still commanding strong pricing. Credit-backed, long-term leases — think investment-grade tenants like CVS with years of term remaining — continue to attract deep buyer demand even in a high-rate environment. Buyers are paying up for safety. If you own quality, the premium is there now.
1031 buyers are active and deadline-driven. Exchange buyers don’t wait for rates to drop — they have 45 days to identify and 180 days to close. That steady, motivated demand supports pricing for clean, passive assets regardless of the rate environment. If your property fits what exchange buyers want, you’re selling into committed demand. Our 1031 exchange team works with these buyers constantly.
Your lease is getting shorter every day. This is the factor owners most often overlook. Net lease value is heavily driven by remaining term. Every year that ticks off your lease, especially as you approach the 5-to-10-year window, can cost you real value. Waiting doesn’t just risk a flat market — it actively erodes your asset if the lease is winding down.
Waiting requires the market to improve enough to overcome lost term. For a “wait” strategy to pay off, future market improvement has to more than offset the value you lose as your lease shortens and as uncertainty around your tenant grows. That’s a high bar, and it’s a bet on factors outside your control.
When Waiting Might Make Sense
To be fair, holding can be the right call if: your lease has long term remaining (15+ years) and isn’t eroding meaningfully, your tenant is rock-solid, you have no debt maturity forcing your hand, and you simply want to keep collecting reliable income. There’s nothing wrong with holding a great asset. But “waiting for rates to drop” by itself is not a strategy — it’s a hope.
The Bottom Line
The market in 2026 is more active than the headlines suggest. Deals are happening, capital is available, and buyer demand for quality remains deep. For owners of strong, credit-backed assets — and especially for owners whose leases are starting to shorten — the window to transact at favorable pricing is open now. Waiting for a dramatically better market means betting against both the rate outlook and the clock running on your own lease.
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